Millions March in San Francisco - December 13, 2014 at 2pm at the Ferry Building

This Saturday, December 13, there will be marches nationwide against the recent killings of Michael Brown and Eric Garner by police and the subsequent grand jury investigations that led to no charges being filed against the police.  

I will be participating in the Millions March in San Francisco - it starts at 2pm at the Ferry Building and I invite you to join me.  We will be marching to City Hall.  The organizers of this march have stressed that it is a peaceful action and that they have planned it to be family friendly.  They also ask participants to wear black.

My thoughts on this issue and the events leading to this march are complicated and I feel that so much of the discourse surrounding these deaths is polarizing. 

• It doesn’t feel safe to say that I believe that race played a critical role in these incidents because those words get misconstrued to mean that I think all cops are racist.
• It doesn’t feel safe to say that I believe that cops are not adequately trained to deal with racially charged situations because those words get misconstrued to mean that I think all cops are racist.
• It doesn’t feel safe to say that I believe that the vast majority of police officers go into law enforcement for the right reasons and that they deal with so many difficult and crappy situations.  Those words get misconstrued to mean that I find no fault with the police.
• It doesn’t feel safe to say that I believe that police officers put themselves in harm’s way almost every day because anyone can be a threat and anyone can be armed.  Those words get misconstrued to mean that I find no fault with the police.

I’ve tried hard to use generalized language like “more often” or “more likely”.  I use that language because these are not either/or situations.  There is significant gray area.  I am sure that many of you could provide individual stories or personal experiences that will contradict the generalizations that I’m making below and that my comments are not meant to invalidate the personal experiences you have had.  

I will be marching on Saturday because I believe that black people are treated differently by police officers than white people. 

I will be marching on Saturday because a significant part of our community feels marginalized and unheard.  Yes, I believe that all lives matter, but right now, I think that we need to reaffirm that black lives matter.

I will be marching on Saturday because I sincerely believe that if I behaved the way that Eric Garner did before he got choked to death, I would still be alive and breathing today.  I may not have even been arrested.  I believe that the law is applied differently to different people.

I will be marching on Saturday because I feel that police officers do not get adequate training on working with different racial populations.  More importantly, I don't believe that police officers get enough training in identifying and challenging their own stereotypes of others.  And because of that, white police are more likely to view a black man as a threat.

I will be marching on Saturday because there have been too many times when an unarmed black man or boy was shot and killed and was denied their right to due process. 

I will be marching on Saturday because the grand jury investigations have revealed procedures and legalities that truly scare me.  It’s not just that there have been no ramifications for the police officers involved.  It’s that a cop is authorized to use deadly force when pursuing a person suspected of committing a felony.  It’s that police officers sometimes use intimidation and aggression to bring control to a situation, but if and when that strategy backfires and serves to escalate the situation, police are authorized to use deadly force when they “fear for their lives.”  These procedures and legalities have to change.

I will be marching on Saturday because I'm fed up with the aspect of police culture that has them blindly stand up for each other and at times refuse to cooperate fully when investigating possible wrongful death cases.  We expect people to face the consequences of their actions.  Resisting arrest is a crime.  Withholding information from an investigation is a crime.  The same holds true for police officers.  If they are being investigated for a possible crime, their fellow officers need to uphold the values of law and order.  If a fellow officer has acted improperly, they need to face the consequences of their actions. 

I will be marching on Saturday because even though Michael Brown and Eric Garner had allegedly committed crimes that led to their interactions with the police and ultimately their demise, they are still afforded the right to due process.  The punishment for selling cigarettes illegally is not death.  The punishment for shoplifting is not death.  The punishment for fleeing a crime scene is not death.  The punishment for assaulting a police officer is NOT death.

And finally, I will be marching on Saturday because I want my voice to be heard.  I want the country to know that I disapprove of these killings, the police procedures that make these killings legal, and the lack of training that makes them probable.  I want the people of color in my community to know that I am in solidarity with them and that my actions match my words.

I hope that you will consider joining me this Saturday.

Bachelor In Paradise - Episode 5 Viewer's Guide: A Changing of the Guard

Shit.  So I’m falling behind on my blog.  And, more importantly, I’m falling behind on the show.  There are still two episodes left for me to see.

Not just that, but my last blog post had a few predictions/assertions that were way off. 

Prediction #1) AshLee and Graham are in trouble as a couple.

Commentary: They definitely weren’t in trouble this past episode.  Graham had a quick bout of sickness, but he didn’t have any second thoughts about AshLee.  They went on an innocuous-looking date where they drove fast cars.  I found it interesting that very, very little of the date was shown.  On their first date, they were super romantic and both thought about spending the night together.  This date was just driving cars?  No dinner?  No kissing?  On EVERY OTHER DATE ON THE SHOW, they show us the romance, the talking about how fast they got so close, the kissing, the random and awkward concert for two by some esoteric band, no matter how much it is a repeat of every other date on the show.  Why was this omitted?  You're telling me that Graham never asked AshLee why she hid her disagreement with Clare from him?  You're telling me that Graham didn't ask AshLee why she didn't show any concern for Graham when he was hyperventilating during the rose ceremony?  Something is amiss.

Assertion #1) Cody is a Voice of Reason.

Commentary: OK, I will stand by my assertion that Cody knows how to read people, but I’ll revise it to say that Cody knows how to read anyone EXCEPT a female he’s interested in.  Anytime I hear a person talk about marriage during their first date (or their life together), I’m sorry, but that strikes the Crazy nerve for me.  In his case, I agree (yikes) with Lacy, I think he’s very inexperienced.  But I’m sorry, if you’re 29, totally inexperienced with dating, and you go on a reality show where you’re supposed to find love, you’re either a fame seeker or you’ve got a couple screws loose.

Also, Cody, I don't know how to spell the pronunciation you gave for Valladolid, but I'm pretty sure that the Italian accent you used was wrong.

Prediction #2) The blood and ambulance from the season preview is due to a suicide attempt.

Commentary: I don’t think so, especially since the ambulance was used for Lacy's sickness.  Maybe Marcus's polka dot dress socks were the source of her pain  I found her being sick and no one having a clue amusing.  No one thinks that she's just dehydrated after being in the sun drinking alcohol all day.

I forgot from the previews that there was also a shot of handcuffs.  I think there’s a fight at some point.  But it’s going to end up being minor.  A broken nose or something like that.  Definitely not as dramatic as the previews make it look.

Now with that said, I do want to point out that I was right on my predictions as to who would get roses at the end of episode 4.

The Crazy Is Gone…

I did NOT foresee Clare leaving like that.  Here’s the problem with Clare’s Crazy, she sees any normal interaction between romantic partners as a threat.  She can’t handle even the notion that her guy isn't 100% invested in her.  When Zack was trying to have a real conversation with her about their relationship, she proved that she couldn’t handle it like a mature adult.  They’ve known each other for three weeks, so his statement that they’ve gotten serious pretty quickly is not inaccurate.  Nor is it a death sentence.  All she needed to say was, "Yes, things have moved pretty fast, but I like where it's going so far."

But rather than hear what he is saying, all Clare could hear was “this is a threat to my vision of love”.  At the same time, she couldn’t hear Zack turning down a date with Christy as confirmation of his commitment to her.  Two actions: one interpreted as a threat and the other completely discounted.

Clare confesses that she wants a person who just wants to be with her.  What she doesn’t seem to understand is that a relationship like that needs to build over time.  When any building is considered a threat, she is doomed to an unsatisfying love life.

When Zack was woken up from a deep slumber (at like 2am) by Clare to tell him that she was leaving, you could see the conflict in him as if he was Darth Vader in Return of the Jedi.  On one hand, he was telling her not to leave and that he wanted her there (which was what she wanted to hear).  On the other hand, he knew that he was fed up with her antics, he wasn't having fun on the show, and he was ready for her to leave.

That said, the producers of the show did Clare no favors – they played up her craziness big time.  

Long Live The Crazy

As Clare left, I thought to myself, “who will fill the crazy void in Clare’s absence?”  Even when Elise left, no one filled the vacancy.  Luckily Cody showed his true colors AND Christy showed up.  (Also, a note to all of you who think that Lucy was another Crazy, you are mistaken.  She is a hard-core fame seeker.)

First, let’s discuss Cody.  Cody, the man who does bench presses with his lady (though I figured that was to entertain Lacy and Marcus who had just returned from the hospital).  Cody, the man who just three days ago was TOTALLY into Clare.  Cody, the man who intimated to the private camera that his mistake with Andi was holding back too much at first.

My favorite part of the whole date was when Cody said to Mich Money that he “hopes these pictures are on our wall someday”.  Her reaction was fantastic: she bugged her eyes a bit and bit her tongue and gulped extra hard, thinking “ohhhhhh shit”.

When even Lacy says you’re inexperienced and trying too hard, you’re in trouble.  Cody doesn’t know how to gauge a woman’s interest in him.  With Andi, Mich Money, and even Clare, he has shown that his M.O. is to push these women to the limit when they finally have to say, “enough!”  It’s almost as if he needs that reaction to believe that they notice his interest. With Mich Money, they had a nice, organic first "date" where Cody gave her a back and arm massage.  She thought it was really nice.  The next day, he's admitting to her that he was there for Clare originally, but now he's there for her.  She thought that was honest and nice.  Then he starts telling her about their future together.  She's starting to think that that was too honest and too much.  Then he starts telling her that she's the one for him.  She's now terrified because he moved too fast and that's hitting on the Crazy Bell.

Here’s the best evidence that Cody is a Crazy.  He needs to date a woman who will be patient with him, who will know how to communicate with him that she’s interested but that he’s pushing too hard (and not hurt his inexperienced feelings).  The only type of person who can do that for him is a Voice of Reason.  Mich Money is not the Voice of Reason that Cody needs.  As a Fame Seeker, Mich Money knows that she’s safe for the next week and all she really cares about is staying on the show.

Take Me Down to the Crazydise City…

Where the men named Jesse are incredibly douchy.

Oh what a bad judge of character…

The new face of crazy

Christy, Jackie, and Lucy share one thing in common… they know that Jesse is bad news but believe his lies (as if they’re Guy Pearce's character in Memento).  How could they all be such bad judges of character?

Christy’s date with Jesse was SO PAINFUL.  She’s talking about how she’s dated douchebags who have cheated on her.  Christy recounts her experiences with the last guy she dated wherein she found another woman’s bra in his bed (or couch cushion).  Christy asks Jesse what he would have said, to which he replies, “I would say that it wasn’t mine.”  Christy’s response, “that’s what HE said!!” as if she never heard the adage, “it takes one to know one.”

Jesse then tells Christy that the next option is to say that it was a friend’s bra.  Christy’s response, “that’s what HE said!!” as if, once again, she never heard the adage, “it takes one to know one.”

Later, after Lucy arrives in all her exhibitionist nudity, asks Jesse Super Asshole* on a date, he says yes, and then Lucy and he make out, Christy confronts Super Asshole about his behavior.  Super Asshole actually said something to the effect of having said yes because he didn’t want Lucy to feel rejected and that he was doing it out of kindness and concern.  My thought was, “no way she buys THIS explanation.”  Lo and behold, it worked like a charm as she cooed about how thoughtful he was.  Shoot me in the face with a harpoon gun.

ALL the warning signs were there for Christy and she lacked the ability to heed them.

*As I wrote this section, I realized how much I disliked Super Asshole... to the extent that I didn't want to refer to him by name any more.  

I hope Super Asshole is the one who gets arrested

I read on another site about Bachelor in Paradise that Lucy allegedly gave Super Asshole the Hando Calrissian treatment and then told him to never speak of that.  I don’t know of such things.

What I do know is this, any guy who refers to a woman as “What’s Her Nuts” TWICE when there are only seven women’s names to choose from is a fairly abominable person.  Unfortunately, Christy has been sucked into his game.  I hope one of the new guys calls Jesse on his bullshit and then punches him in the nose.

You know why Super Asshole picked Christy over Lucy?  For three reasons: 1) Super Asshole is into blondes.  2) During the rose ceremony cocktail party, Lucy told him that he had “ensconced himself into a very precarious position.”  With that one sentence, Super Asshole knew that Lucy, while much more open sexually, was also much smarter and less inclined to take his bullshit.  Leading to 3) Christy was much more easily manipulated.

Oh and instead of saying that Super Asshole is a “player” can we just say that he objectifies women and uses them?   I think that’s more accurate.

Predictions Prior To The Rose Ceremony Cocktail Party:

Cody picks Mich Money

Graham picks AshLee

Marcus picks Lacy

Robert picks Sarah

Zack picks Jackie

Super Asshole picks Christy

Lucy goes home

Hey look at that, I was right!  Not that it was hard to predict.  The only real question was Lucy vs Christy.  I did not predict that Marcus would be A) the first to use the L word and B) the second to give a long rambling speech (Elise was the first).

Thoughts AFTER the Rose Ceremony:

Marcus, none of us care how much you think you’re in love with Lacy.  Can’t you tell that there’s something wrong when she wants you to say it, but she’s scared to say it back.  With how close you are, something’s not right and I think Lacy wants her screen time with a scandal.

Graham, stop it with the bow ties.  You're killing us!!

Robert and Sarah are super cute.  I liked their date and that they started talking about something other than how great they were together.  The preview for Episode 6 shows that there’s a guy showing up who Sarah likes.  I think this is just production nonsense.  She turns down the date and stays with Roberto.

Oh and by the way, isn’t it all WAY TOO COINCIDENTAL who is showing up?  It's like each person has been hand picked to shake things up somehow.

After week 1, we had intense couples with Elise and Dylan, AshLee and Graham, Lacy Robert and Marcus love triangle.  A day in, and Mich Money shows up for two reasons, she has a thing for Marquel (who hadn’t coupled up yet, but the BIP producers were worried about the only person of color not meeting someone and getting sent home right away).  Also, Mich Money has history with Graham, so she could potentially stir things up there.

In Episode 2, Chris and Zack show up.  Things were still a little “in the air” with some couples.  Zack was the hot one who could probably get any woman to say yes.  Chris just didn't give a fuck.  Plus, Marquel and Mich Money are in trouble as a couple.  Also Marquel’s buddy, Dylan, was just sent home.  At the end of the show, Clare and Zack are getting serious.  Robert is starting to have some interest in Mich Money and Sarah.

In Episode 3, Danielle (who had a thing for Marquel only) shows up.  Also Jackie (who has a thing for Zack) shows up and asks Marquel out.  There’s potential for Jackie to shake up the whole Clare/Zack thing and Marquel to stay on the show with Danielle.

In Episode 4, Cody, Jesse and Kalon show up to shake things up.  Kalon is hated by everyone and ignored.  Jesse jumps in on the Jackie thing.  Cody has a huge crush on Clare and tries to shake that up.

And in Episode 5, Christy and Lucy, two friends show up.  Christy has a thing for Zack and tries to shake that up.  Lucy likes to be naked and shakes things up in that way.

Now our next preview shows Sarah’s crush arriving.  I bet he asks her out.  I think she'll say no.

And because Lucy's run was too fast, here's a video she did about Juan Pablo last year...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBGKYO6NqPc

Bachelor In Paradise – Episode 4 Viewing Guide: A Contrast In Styles

Last Monday’s Bachelor In Paradise was my favorite one yet because it featured so many different approaches to this social experiment.  (Quick Disclaimer: I still have not watched last Tuesday’s episode of Bachelor in Paradise, so my predictions and comments may end up being way off base.)

Who is Safe?

First off, with Chris leaving, we are left with five guys remaining.  I am assuming that three new guys are arriving this week, giving the six ladies eight choices.  This made me pause the show in the first few minutes and consider which guys were “safe” this week.  (Though Mich Money’s behavior makes me think that I need to remind all six women that they are “safe” this week since they’re the ones handing out roses.)  These are my real-time picks, I have not edited them since writing them down… In order of safest to most likely to leave the show:

• Robert – gave his rose to the most stable woman on the show.  No way she stabs him in the back.
• Zack – I could see Clare being asked on a date by a new guy and Jackie swooping in to test the chemistry with him.  Either way, Zack is getting a rose from Clare or Jackie.
• Marcus – he and Lacy have been MUCH too stable and I could see the producers sending in a guy with a huge crush on her just to mix things up and Marcus going nuts.
• Graham – the previews make it seem like something is going to happen between them.  This may be too low a rank for him, but I could also see the producers engineering something where AshLee is asked out.
• Marquel – No way he’s making it past this week because A) last week was SO focused on him (two dates, one kiss), B) he picked Jackie who isn’t nearly as interested in him as he is in her, and C) he just isn’t that attentive to any women on the show. 

Approaches By The Men:

The Good:

I was SO thankful for Cody who brought not only a breath of fresh air with his positivity, but also a very unassuming, genuine approach to interpersonal relationships on the show.  For those of you who didn’t see Andi’s Marcus’s Season With Andi On The Bachelorette, Cody was the same way on that season.  He looks like a total meathead, and though he wasn’t all that book smart nor did he have much fashion sense, the man understands people well.

The way he approached asking Clare on a date was perfect.  He was appropriately aggressive meaning that he respected Clare’s boundaries.  He gave her the freedom and time to make a decision about whether or not to accept the date and then handled the rejection unusually gracefully.  And then he further backed up his actions by giving his date card to someone else.  His interactions with Clare and Zack after the rejection did not seem awkward at all.

The fact that he and Mich Money organically stumbled upon some level of attraction was actually pretty sweet. 

The Bad (and kind of Ugly):

Kalon gave us all a lesson in how NOT to treat women or people in general.  I think the only person willing to talk to him was Graham.  In his short stint on the show, Kalon likened his attraction to all the women in Paradise to an alcoholic in a bar and then referred to two women tanning as sun lizards.  He also had an odd interaction with Mich Money (who had initially accepted but then rejected the date) during which they rehashed his disrespectful behavior on a previous season of The Bachelorette.  Without really listening to what Mich Money said, Kalon responded that this was all “water under the bridge”… leading me to wonder if Kalon even knew what that phrase meant.

That said, Kalon going on a date with himself and the camera angles was freaking hilarious.  I could watch that again.

The Ugly:

Jesse, who looked most Neanderthal-ish, was both physically ugly and completely willing to lie to get what he wanted.  Of course, I may just be upset that his behavior worked.  For those of you who missed it, Jesse asked Jackie (who had just accepted a rose from Marquel) on a date.  In the private camera, Jesse admits that the only two women who seemed available were Mich Money and Jackie.  He sensed that Jackie was most available and asked her out because he wanted to stay in Paradise for more than a day.  At one point during the date, Jackie asked Jesse why he picked her and if he wasn’t just strategizing to stay on the show.  Jesse paused and lied, saying that he thought she was the most attractive (barf).  And she ate that shit up.  (Quadruple barf and shotgun blast to the head).

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly 2 - The Crazy, The Simple, and The Bizarre

The Crazy:

Clare was featured in two parts of the show: 1) when being asked out by Cody and 2) when she found out through third parties that AshLee brought up her alleged ocean sex with Juan Pablo.

In the first, Clare was very upfront with both Cody and Zack and demonstrated her commitment to Zack.  I thought she was perceptive in pointing out that Zack was being non-committal to her.  I also thought that she was also appropriately accepting when Zack came back to her and vowed his commitment to her.  I think that she stood behind her words in turning down the date with Cody even after Zack was non-committal.  What’s interesting was that this seemed to be a bit of a stylistic difference between VORs and Crazies.  Crazies ask a question and want to hear a particular answer.  VORs have a hard time being anything but honest when posed with a hypothetical.

Clare: What would you do if a woman showed up and asked you on a date?

Answer That Clare Wanted: I’d turn her down.

Answer That Zack Gave: Well it depends.

Now, I understand that Zack should have given the answer Clare wanted, but technically, Zack was right.  I mean, what if fucking Jennifer Lopez walked into paradise and asked Zack out.  Are you telling me that he’d say no?  No way.  Or let’s say he got asked out by some random person and both Clare and Zack agreed that it would be okay.

That said, I really do think that Clare approached that situation well.

HOWEVER...

Clare showed her crazy when she felt stabbed in the back by AshLee. Her scene where she was wearing no make-up and combing her hair while talking to Mich Money felt like it was straight out of a horror movie.  I was actually scared for AshLee.

More importantly, she was pissed that Zack didn't "have her back".  When she asked him, "Why didn't you tell her that she was wrong to bring it up?" he told her honestly that he did. Clare was still unsatisfied.  You know it's serious when EVERYONE is scared to say anything for fear of upsetting Clare.  My favorite moment was when Robert and Graham walked into a room and they could feel the tension but had no idea what was going on.  But at the same time, they felt the need to stick around just in case shit went down.  It was like Graham, Zack, and Robert were all bears who just wanted to do their own thing, but felt the need to stick around because the hyenas were getting rambunctious.  And hyenas don't get so crazy when bears are around.  (Look, I don't know if bears and hyenas share the same habitat, just go with it.)

The Simple:

I had such hopes for Jackie.  I liked that she gravitated to Sarah instead of the Crazies.  I liked that she turned down the date with Kalon.  I loved that when on the date with Jesse, she asked him point blank if he was just strategizing when asking her out because EVERYONE knew that Jesse was a player.  Through her eyes, she definitely seemed to be judging him acutely.

And then she went and ate up his bullshit hook, line, and sinker.  He was SO taken off-guard by the directness of the question that it should have been obvious that he was scrambling for an answer.  But she ended up making the mistake that so many girls and women make in their interactions with guys… they WANT to hear the romantic words that they WANT to be true.  Kind of a “he couldn’t say that if he didn’t mean it” or “he couldn’t do that if he didn’t mean it.”  But the fact of the matter is that guys KNOW how to play the game.  Tell her she looks beautiful even if you don’t believe it.  Give her flowers even if you don’t care.

The Bizarre:

Why does anyone care that Clare may or may not have had sex in the ocean with Juan Pablo?  Why does everyone talk about the new people as they enter (Kalon's an asshole, Mich Money is awesome), but then think that no one has pre-judged them?  If people are so concerned about the cameras and microphones, why don't they spend more time in the ocean?  Who cares if AshLee is a different person on camera than off?

They thought the cameras weren't watching!!

Why is everyone focusing on the fact that AshLee said that Clare couldn't be trusted because she "has sex in oceans" as if that were a condition you could have?  Why isn't anyone focusing on the fact that AshLee was very subtly making a move on Zack?  Or that she was the ambassador for someone else (Jackie?) who was interested in him?  Clare's all pissed off at the wrong things.

Why does Graham care SO MUCH that AshLee was the center of the controversy that he walks out of the rose ceremony?  (Actually, I DO know the answer to that one... he's a fame seeker.)  Why doesn't he just accept the rose and then get all drama-y in the next few days when HE has the rose to give out and has all the leverage?  

And wait... how does this show end?  At some point there are winners and losers, right?  How do you win?

Quick Hits:

Time to update your vocabulary:  Marcus to Lacy, “I’m very smitten by you.”  Lacy’s response was to giggle and say "smitten” (as if Marcus just made up a word).

I take it that you weren't the spelling bee champ either:  Right after the rose ceremony from last week, this exchange:
Guy #1: So there's five guys now.
Guy #2: Really?
Guy #1: Yeah because Chris left.

I wouldn’t drink the water there:  Jesse, on his date with Jackie, mispronounced the name of their date location as Rio Secreeto.  Ewwww.

So you’re saying there’s a chance:  Sarah’s quote, “Kalon wouldn’t get close enough to my mouth for me to throw up in his mouth if he tried to kiss me.”

Jerry Maguire 2… or not quite as romantic as “You complete me”:  Marcus to Lacy, “I see a lot of you, like, in someone I can see a future with.”  Read carefully to see what he really just said.

Ironic, though not in the Alanis Morissette sense:  Lacy telling the private camera that AshLee is fake and needs to “just be you” while wearing a fuckton of make-up and practically looking like a new contestant on the show.

The Princess Bride 2 - Inconceivable!:  During his date with Lacy, he slipped and said the L word in the context of loving things about her.  Lacy clearly took this to mean that he was "in love" with her.  She clearly didn't watch Marcus's Season of The Bachelorette With Andi where he was "in love" with Andi by episode 2.

Matrix 2:  In my week 1 viewer’s guide, I wrote “Lacy seems somewhat down-to-earth.”  Can I get a do-over on that one?  Just know that I was keeping a running journal and it was an unedited stream of consciousness.

Goodfellas 2 – Goodfellas In Paradise:  After the rose ceremony in Episode 3, the whole crew is walking back to the resort and Zack is carrying a shovel.  I’m hoping that Chris got the old horse with a broken leg treatment.

Even the editors don’t care anymore: In Mich Money’s opening spiel about how she didn’t know what she was going to do (because all the guys are coupled up), there was a HORRIBLE voiceover edit of the words “and now” to link two sentences together.  Those words were three times louder than either sentence before or after.  The only thing edited out was the producers going, “ahhh fuck it”.

Voices of Reason vs Crazies vs Fame Seekers:
See my episode 2 guide for more, but as far as I can tell, here is the current count:

VORs: Sarah, Robert, Zack, Danielle, Dylan, Marquel, Cody
Fame Seekers: Mich Money, Graham, Michelle K, Lacy, Jackie, Kalon, Chris, Ben, Daniella, Jesse
Crazies: Elise, Clare, AshLee, Marcus

Cliffhanger 2 – Cliffhangerer:  The show ends on a cliffhanger during the rose ceremony where Graham walks out after being offered the rose from AshLee.  And Mich Money runs after Graham.

My predictions before the rose ceremony were:
Lacy picks Marcus
Sarah picks Robert
Clare picks Zack
AshLee picks Graham
Mich Money picks Cody
Jackie picks Jesse

Marquel goes home to church and Kalon makes some stupid ass comments

So what’s going to happen in Episode 5?

Here are my guesses:

Graham accepts the rose from AshLee (mostly because Graham likes being on TV and doesn’t want to jeopardize that).  Later in the episode, they have a talk and AshLee freaks out and then does something dramatic.  From her perspective, she just ruined her relationship with her best “friend” on the show (in Clare).  Graham is questioning his relationship with her.  And her other best “friend” on the show (Mich Money) just showed that her allegiance lies with Graham, not her.  

We know from the series teaser that some drama happens involving blood and an ambulance.  My first thought five weeks ago was domestic violence starring Marcus.  Evelyn's first thought was suicide attempt.  I'm thinking that Evelyn may be right.